Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 141,378
2 Rhode Island 139,882
3 South Dakota 138,652
4 Utah 124,167
5 Tennessee 121,967
6 Arizona 118,692
7 Iowa 115,851
8 Nebraska 113,795
9 Wisconsin 113,679
10 Oklahoma 113,294
11 South Carolina 112,702
12 New Jersey 112,585
13 Arkansas 111,328
14 Indiana 107,834
15 Alabama 107,806
16 Delaware 107,735
17 Kansas 106,826
18 Illinois 106,004
19 New York 105,534
20 Idaho 105,048
21 Mississippi 104,799
22 Florida 104,423
23 Minnesota 102,724
24 Nevada 102,409
25 Montana 102,084
26 Georgia 101,561
27 Wyoming 100,459
28 Kentucky 100,351
29 Massachusetts 100,278
30 Texas 99,918
31 Louisiana 98,645
32 Missouri 98,150
33 Connecticut 95,148
34 California 94,781
35 New Mexico 94,300
36 Michigan 94,062
37 North Carolina 93,151
38 Alaska 92,404
39 Ohio 91,966
40 Pennsylvania 90,703
41 Colorado 89,661
42 West Virginia 85,884
43 Virginia 77,477
44 Maryland 74,297
45 New Hampshire 70,145
46 District of Columbia 67,807
47 Washington 53,403
48 Puerto Rico 52,037
49 Maine 46,009
50 Oregon 44,181
51 Vermont 37,061
52 Hawaii 23,299

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Minnesota 313
2 Delaware 298
3 Colorado 256
4 Michigan 247
5 Pennsylvania 244
6 Florida 226
7 Maine 223
8 West Virginia 220
9 Illinois 202
10 Puerto Rico 199
11 Oregon 198
12 Indiana 183
13 New York 179
14 North Dakota 179
15 South Carolina 176
16 New Jersey 174
17 New Hampshire 171
18 Massachusetts 170
19 Vermont 161
20 Maryland 139
21 Washington 134
22 Georgia 123
23 Missouri 122
24 Ohio 120
25 Wisconsin 118
26 Kentucky 116
27 Virginia 116
28 District of Columbia 113
29 Iowa 110
30 Utah 106
31 Arizona 104
32 Montana 103
33 Nebraska 97
34 Hawaii 96
35 Rhode Island 90
36 North Carolina 76
37 Texas 76
38 Alabama 73
39 Connecticut 73
40 Kansas 64
41 Alaska 63
42 Nevada 55
43 Tennessee 50
44 Louisiana 49
45 Arkansas 48
46 South Dakota 48
47 California 45
48 New Mexico 45
49 Wyoming 42
50 Oklahoma 31
51 Idaho 27
52 Mississippi 27

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,882
2 New York 2,664
3 Massachusetts 2,556
4 Rhode Island 2,521
5 Mississippi 2,418
6 Arizona 2,382
7 Connecticut 2,271
8 Louisiana 2,233
9 Alabama 2,225
10 South Dakota 2,223
11 Pennsylvania 2,056
12 North Dakota 2,001
13 Indiana 1,982
14 New Mexico 1,940
15 Illinois 1,922
16 Arkansas 1,902
17 Michigan 1,890
18 Iowa 1,888
19 South Carolina 1,849
20 Georgia 1,844
21 Nevada 1,773
22 Tennessee 1,771
23 Texas 1,740
24 Kansas 1,724
25 Oklahoma 1,715
26 Delaware 1,669
27 Ohio 1,649
28 Florida 1,642
29 District of Columbia 1,567
30 California 1,566
31 Missouri 1,507
32 West Virginia 1,498
33 Kentucky 1,484
34 Montana 1,472
35 Maryland 1,451
36 Wisconsin 1,299
37 Minnesota 1,286
38 Virginia 1,264
39 Nebraska 1,223
40 Wyoming 1,221
41 North Carolina 1,208
42 Idaho 1,146
43 Colorado 1,117
44 New Hampshire 959
45 Washington 728
46 Puerto Rico 724
47 Utah 687
48 Oregon 596
49 Maine 586
50 Alaska 451
51 Vermont 395
52 Hawaii 339

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 5
2 Maryland 3
3 California 2
4 Florida 2
5 Illinois 2
6 Iowa 2
7 New Jersey 2
8 New York 2
9 Ohio 2
10 Pennsylvania 2
11 West Virginia 2
12 Alabama 1
13 Arizona 1
14 Connecticut 1
15 Georgia 1
16 Indiana 1
17 Kentucky 1
18 Maine 1
19 Massachusetts 1
20 Minnesota 1
21 Montana 1
22 New Mexico 1
23 North Dakota 1
24 Puerto Rico 1
25 South Carolina 1
26 South Dakota 1
27 Texas 1
28 Virginia 1
29 Wisconsin 1
30 Alaska 0
31 Arkansas 0
32 Colorado 0
33 Delaware 0
34 District of Columbia 0
35 Hawaii 0
36 Idaho 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Louisiana 0
39 Mississippi 0
40 Missouri 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 Nevada 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 North Carolina 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Rhode Island 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 361,511 1 99
Crowley Colorado 359,842 2 99
Bent Colorado 273,265 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 248,133 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,445 186 94
Richland South Carolina 110,913 985 68
York South Carolina 109,524 1040 66
Orange California 85,110 2186 30
Pierce Washington 54,479 2874 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,565 1821 42
York South Carolina 1,342 2079 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,341 2081 33
Richland South Carolina 1,313 2112 32
Pierce Washington 717 2742 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons